Late April heatwave in Southern Europe and Northern Africa ‘almost impossible without climate change’

The World Weather Attribution Initiative (WWA) is a collaboration between climate scientists at universities around the world that seeks to provide quick answers as to the extent a particular extreme weather event was influenced by climate change. Previously establishing such a link could take a year or more, by which time any attribution to climate change went largely unnoticed.

In late April temperatures in parts of Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria were up to 20 degrees Celsius warmer than normal for the time of year, with temperatures topping 40 degrees in the latter two countries.

WWA scientists analysed data relating to the heatwave and found that the temperatures were so extreme there was a likelihood of only 0.25% of such a heatwave occurring in any given year, and that the heatwave should have been two degrees cooler. The scientists noted “extreme heat is increasing faster than climate models simulate is a known problem in summer in Western Europe, in all climate models, and is also found here.”

The report also pointed out that early heatwaves can be the most dangerous as they come before people have prepared to the summer heat, and also can be damaging to crop yield, for example damaging wheat crops at a critical time.