Why I’m optimistic
In many ways, we’ve never had it so good. The Industrial Revolution unlocked unprecedented prosperity - life expectancy has doubled around the world in the last two centuries, the global literacy rate has gone from 12% in 1820 to nearly 90% today, and the world’s GDP per capita has increased tenfold in the past 200 years.
Of course it is much more complicated than that. There are significant inequalities both between and within countries, something we’ll dive into another time.
There is a sense though, that the standard of living we enjoy today is to the detriment of future generations. A boom fuelled by coal, oil and gas has pumped billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into our atmosphere, filled our oceans with plastic, decimated our forests, and been a catastrophe for the vast majority of species we share Planet Earth with. We consume 1.7 times the resources our planet can regenerate in a year.
The consequences of burning fossil fuels also impact us today. 99% of us breathe polluted air, leading to 8 million deaths annually. Microplastics are everywhere - we each consume about a credit card’s worth of plastic each week. The health impacts on us are still being studied, but already microplastics have been linked to inflammatory bowel disease and damage to our cells. And as temperatures rise we are all going to be exposed to more extreme heat - which can be deadly.
Why do we accept living on a planet in such a parlous state? Sadly, it’s because we don’t really know any different. We were born into a world shaped by humans so we accept it as normal. Yet just 300 years ago, the blink of an eye in geological terms, the world was a completely different place. 95% of the planet’s ice-free land was either wild” or “used so lightly as to be categorised as ‘semi-natural’”. By 2000 only 5% was left.
In his book A Life on Our Planet, Sir David Attenborough explains this phenomenon, known as shifting baseline syndrome:
“A shifting baseline has distorted our perception of all life on Earth. We have forgotten that once there were temperate forests that would take days to traverse, herds of bison that would take four hours to pass, and flocks of birds so vast and dense that they darkened the skies. Those things were normal only a few lifetimes ago. Not any more. We have become accustomed to an impoverished planet. We have replaced the wild with the tame. We regard the Earth as our planet, run by humankind for humankind. There is little left for the rest of the living world. The truly wild world - that non-human world - has gone. We have overrun the Earth.”
How do we stay optimistic in the face of such a dire situation? Here are three reasons not to give up.
We’ve done it before. In the 1970s scientists began to understand the impact of chlorofluorocarbons, chemical compounds used in aerosols and refrigeration, on the atmosphere. They found that CFCs damaged the ozone layer, the part of the stratosphere that protects us from most of the Sun’s ultraviolet radiation. By 1985 scientists had confirmed the existence of an ‘ozone hole’ above Antarctica. That same year 20 countries, including most of the major CFC producers, signed the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and just two years later the Montreal Protocol, which committed signatory states to phasing out the production of CFCs. The Montreal Protocol has been ratified by all UN member states. As a result of these treaties, 98% of ozone depleting substances (including CFCs) have been phased out compared to 1990 levels and the ozone layer is projected to recover by 2050. It is estimated that millions of cases of melanoma and other skin cancers have been prevented and we’ve avoided releasing a significant amount of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
We’re doing it again, albeit slowly. The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”, and ideally below 1.5 degrees Celsius. We hit 1.5 degrees for 12 consecutive months between July 2023 and June 2024 so we are already up against the stretch target we set for ourselves. However, there are signs we are transitioning away from an economy reliant on fossil fuel:
Global renewable energy capacity grew by the fastest pace recorded in the last 20 years in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)
The IEA also said the shift to renewable energy was unstoppable and could provide half of all electricity generated by 2023
Some climate analysts predicted 2023 was the year global carbon emissions from energy use peaked
There are a few countries that are already at net zero emissions
There are smart, enthusiastic people working in companies dedicated to tackling environmental issues. In every industry sector there are opportunities to do things differently, in a way less harmful to the environment. There are countless examples of companies doing just that, and here are just a few from here in New Zealand:
Ethique - plastic-free hair, face and body products. 37 million plastic bottles saved to date.
Greenwave Aotearoa - commercial planting of native seaweed.
Teiny - plant-based milk powder.
Openstar Technologies - attempting to develop a nuclear fusion reactor.
Ocean Flyer - aiming to operate fully electric seagliders in New Zealand from 2026.
EV Maritime -developing electric and alternative energy commercial boats, starting with two 200-seat ferries for Auckland in 2024.
Mint Innovation - extracting green metals from the world's waste to accelerate a circular economy.
Zincovery - building an alternative to the current carbon intensive zinc recycling process.
Sustainability isn’t a binary thing, it’s a question of what we are willing to do. We have left it late to take action so we are going to have to adapt, but we can’t despair. Every positive action we take benefits us, and tomorrow’s generation. I’m positive because we have to be - our children depend on it.