Who stands to lose the most from a transition away from fossil fuels?

Remember Dr John Sterman from the bathtub analogy? In the same article he said: "The science is unequivocal now. It's urgent that we reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. That debate is basically over."

One way to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions would be to use fewer (or no) fossil fuels. Unfortunately it’s not that simple though. You see, there are significant actors, both states and companies, that make a lot of money selling fossil fuels and who would stand to lose a lot if things changed. We’ll cover this topic in a lot more detail another time, but these states and companies have even engaged in disinformation campaigns in an effort to confuse public opinion despite having been warned about global warming at least as early as 1959.

The so-called “Big 5” oil companies are US-based Exxon and Chevron, Shell and BP from the UK, and French company TotalEnergies. In 2022 they recorded a combined annual profit of $US195 billion. In other words, they are doing very nicely.

There are other major oil companies, for example Saudi Arabia’s Aramco (who made $US161 billion profit all by themselves in 2022), however they tend to be solely or majority state-owned.

In terms of the countries most invested in the fossil fuel economy, consider the following charts from Our World in Data:

A transition away from fossil fuels will leave some worse off. Arguably the major oil companies and developed countries should be able to wear the costs on their own, but developing countries may well argue that they should be compensated for leaving their fossil fuel assets in the ground.