1.5 degrees of warming is no longer an abstract number

As Nicole Jennings’ cartoon in The Guardian indicates, the 1.5 degrees increase countries pledged to try and limit global warming to is fast approaching.

A report by the World Meteorological Organisation has found that a developing El Niño system means there is a 66% likelihood of exceeding 1.5 degrees in at least one year between 2023 and 2027. There is also a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record.

Even as recently as 2015, 1.5 degrees of warming seemed sufficiently far off that there was time to turn things around before it was reached. The only good news in the report is that any breach should be temporary, for now at least.